These are just a few of the factors that will affect spring fertilizer prices and supplies. Right now, logistics will determine how hard it will be to get product when you need it. Most suppliers feel that there may be spot outages if transportation cannot replenish storage facilities as quickly as farmers can apply the material.   

• UREA: Prices have increased by almost $100 per ton since we saw the bottom around Christmas. We still have some prepay tons available. The U.S. barge bids are about $10 less than the lowest bid around the rest of the world, so no barges are heading towards us! Indian and European purchases in the next month may also limit the amount of tons that might ship here from Egypt. Supplies may get tight if the urea market can command more money overseas than here. 
• PHOSPHATES: There is some strength in the markets; exports have increased and spring demand is beginning to be purchased. Many warehouses have only purchased as much MAP or DAP as they have sold. There are still some immediate ship tons available, but spring prepays are becoming tight.  If supplies get really tight, only prepay product will be shipped (no cash or spot tons available).
• NH₃: Limited spring prepay tons in North Dakota. If available supply is not contracted, it may be outsourced to corn belt terminals.  
• AMS: Price has firmed since the winter fill program. Producers don't seem to have excess to sell, so don't expect any softness in this market. 

What does this mean for our growers? We suggest that you book and/or prepay your needs in the next month. The volatility in the markets has everyone leery and dealers are not going to have excess product available to sell to "walk-in" customers. We have limited pre-pay tons available for all products. Call for pricing. If you are in the position to store fertilizer on your farm, there may be some better deals out there for immediate ship cash loads. At the least, we anticipate price increases for cost of money and storage.